One of the bigger injury questions heading into fantasy football Week 5 centers on the status of Buffalo Bills RB C.J. Spiller who is listed as questionable and reportedly is a true game-time decision for the Thursday night game against the Cleveland Browns. Spiller is nursing a sprained ankle that he hurt in last week's win over the Baltimore Ravens which followed a calf injury the week before. In between, Spiller has not played nearly as well as his first round draft slot from this past summer as the term "bust" has already been tossed around. While I think it is too early to go that far, there is no question that Spiller's numbers are not anywhere near what was expected. Before we get into the injury, let's take a closer look at those numbers through four games.
230 rushing yards on 66 carries
3.5 YPC
9 receptions
0 touchdowns
All the way down the line Spiller's numbers are pretty dreadful. The 3.5 YPC is a vast drop from the 6.0 he averaged in 2012 which generated so much excitement entering the season in the first place. In addition, Spiller has not scored ONCE whether it be carrying the football or catching it. Finally, the 9 receptions are also a downer as Spiller is much better than that in the receiving game. His backup Fred Jackson however is averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring two touchdowns with 13 catches. So in essence Jackson has been easily the most valuable Bills runner this season.
So what is truly going on with Spiller? A few things that catch my attention. The first is the obvious injury factor which is one of the prime concerns I had about Spiller entering the season. I voiced concern about Spiller's ability to hold up under a full time load of carries and so far through two games he is fulfilling my worries with his leg/ankle issues. Going all the way back to his days at Clemson, Spiller has dealt with more than a few health problems. So anyone who is not 100 percent physically is not going to be able to put out their best efforts which is what we could be seeing in Spiller's underwhelming numbers. In addition, Jackson's good performances are forcing the ball into his hands more at the expense of Spiller. Less carries for Spiller = less numbers. Finally, Spiller has looked very impatient with his running, not waiting for the holes to open while the veteran in Jackson has conditioned him to do so. Put it all together and we have a very disappointing first round draft pick.
So what happens from here? Ultimately Spiller is way too talented to continue to struggle like this. A buy low wouldn't be the worst idea in the world but as I said in the summer, I don't see Spiller coming anywhere near fulfilling his first round draft slot. The proof is in the numbers which no back can run from.
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